Eric McCormack (originally aired November 2, 2002)
- Giuliani Ads (Republicans could win back control of the Senate if they gain just one seat over the Democrats in the Nov. 5 elections)
- Election Ads (attack ads invoke plans to "privatize" Social Security)
- CNN American Morning with Paula Zahn (U.S. and France are negotiating the wording of a U.N. resolution about Iraq; Russian military used gas to stop Chechen separatists who held hostages for about 60 hours beginning Oct. 23; alleged D.C.-area snipers John Muhammad and John Lee Malvo were arrested on Oct. 23 and are being linked to prior attacks around the country)
- Weekend Update (Haitians land on the Florida shore; New York City chosen on Nov. 2 to be the U.S. bid city for the 2012 Olympics, though an ultimate decision by the International Olympic Committee is not expected until July 2005)
Control of Congress (last updated November 3, 2002) (back to top)
Control of the U.S. Senate, and thus control of much of the upcoming legislative agenda, hangs on the November 2002 elections. The Democratic Party have been the Senate's majority party since Sen. Jeffrey Jeffords of Vermont left the Republican Party to become a Democrat-affiliated independent in June 2001, but retains that control by a thin margin that the Republicans hope to overcome.
Recent events, such as the death of Senator Paul Wellstone (D-Minn.), have only highlighted the potential shift in control. Going into the elections, the Democrats have 49 seats plus Jeffords, the Republicans have 49 seats as well, and Wellstone's seat is vacant. Republicans are defending 20 of the 34 Senate seats that are in play this election, and many are considered too close to call.
The majority party in the Senate gets to lead the Senate committees and thus has a great opportunity to shape the political agenda. However, support from the minority party is still needed to pass some Senate actions and can use procedural devices such as filibusters to prevent some actions from coming up for a vote.
In the event of a 50-50 split between the two parties, Vice-President Dick Cheney will cast the deciding vote and the Republican Party will be the majority party.
The following charts show how control of Senate and House seats has changed over time. After years as the minority party, the Republicans took control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives in 1995 following the 1994 mid-term elections, the first of President Clinton's administration.
Sources: The Senate has information about party divisions on-line here.
Social Security : General Overview (last updated August 14, 2001) (back to top)
More than three decades from now, Social Security, the federal social-insurance program benefiting the elderly and the disabled, will go bankrupt.
This projection has driven much of the recent public debate around various programs to "save" Social Security. President Bill Clinton convened conferences to save Social Security, and President George W. Bush named a commission (co-chaired by former Democratic Senator Patrick Moynihan and co-chief operating officer of AOL Time Warner Richard D. Parsons) that considered various proposals such as privatizing some Social Security funds for individual accounts, raising the retirement age, and reducing annual cost-of-living adjustments.
But others have challenged the basic assumptions that underlie the Social Security debate, arguing that the entire crisis is built around worst-case scenarios that are unlikely to come true.
Begun in 1935 initially just to help retirees, Social Security is largely a pay-as-you-go program under which no money is actually saved or invested but simply transferred from current workers to retirees, their surviving spouses and children, and disabled workers. This way, current workers are taxed in order to benefit prior generations with the understanding that they will be compensated in turn when they retire.
In 1999, workers were taxed 12.40 percent of only the first $72,600 of annual pay to fund Social Security's Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability (OASDI) program and another 1.45 percent tax on all earnings to fund Medicare; Social Security taxes are thus mostly regressive and have less impact on the high-wage earners who generally need Social Security less. Benefits are calculated through a more complicated formula involving a retiree's best 35 years of earnings, the age at which a beneficiary retired, and marital status.
Since the 1983 reforms that averted a major budget crisis, Social Security has been collecting more in tax revenues than it has incurred in expenses through its OASDI program. In 1999, for example, Social Security collected about $52 billion more in tax revenues and another $49 billion in interest on the bonds held in trust funds, and the Trust Fund now has about $1 trillion in reserves.
However, this accumulation is not seen as actual savings due to the massive deficits elsewhere in the federal budget; also, the OASDI program is so expensive that even billions of dollars only gives cushion room for a year or two.
Projections indicate that the OASDI program's Trust Fund will continue to grow for years to come, peaking somewhere in the trillions of dollars, many times above what the fund has ever had before. But then, around 2015, the Trust Fund will begin to be depleted as more current workers retire and the demographics change from the traditional pyramid structure (few retirees, many workers, many more young workers) to a more top-heavy one (go here for more).
And then, around 2036, the Trust Fund will be exhausted, according to current projections.
These projections have been revised each year (in 1983, the projection was that the Trust Fund would not be depleted until 2063), but the overall trend towards exhaustion has remained and the year at which the fund is exhausted has come closer each time.
The question is what to do about Social Security. There are a variety of policy options that would deal with the system. The options within Social Security alone are effectively to cut benefits somehow and/or to increase payroll taxes (Another solution could be to ease the demographics pressures through increases in birth rates, labor-force participation, or immigration).
Some common proposals include:
- Privatization through individual retirement accounts. This measure does not directly address the budget constraints or demographic pressures on Social Security so much as it makes Social Security into less of a generational-transfer program into more of an individual savings program. This system has been adopted in countries such as Australia and Sweden with some success. Also, Chile moved in 1981 to a mandatory approach that some credit with helping increase national savings and investment.
- Raising the retirement age. This would deal with the reality that people live longer than they did in previous decades. It would also effectively cut benefits for future retirees, since benefits are tied to when one retires and people thus retiring at the same age as before a change would then receive less benefits.
- Reducing the cost-of-living adjustment. Some have criticized the cost-of-living adjustment developed by the Department of Labor as bad economics, and thus argue that retirees are gaining more in benefits each year than they should based on the way the economy actually works. Reducing the COLA adjustment, or simply eliminating it, would thus cut costs and prevent unintended increases in Social Security benefits. Ideally, current retirees would not feel the increase, though their benefits may go down.
- Return to a pure pay-as-you-go program. This would tie benefit payments to what Social Security actually brings in each year, which would mean increased benefit payments until around 2015 and then sharp falls as Social Security brings in less money each year.
Iraq (last updated October 13, 2002) (back to top)
Ruled by Saddam Hussein since 1979, Iraq has seen its relationship with the United States change from that of Cold War ally to Gulf War enemy to a probable target in the United States' self-declared war against terrorism. President George W. Bush has spent much of 2002 building a case for military action against Iraq, and won Congressional approval in early October 2002 to use force as he deems "necessary and appropriate" to defend the United States and to enforce United Nations Security Council resolutions regarding Iraq.
Bush's campaign to rally support for military action against Iraq began in early 2002 (shortly after military operations in Afghanistan succeeded in largely dismantling al-Qaeda) with a Jan. 29 State of the Union address in which he described Iraq as one of several states constituting an "axis of evil" because of its search for weapons of mass destruction (see text here). He then took his case to the United Nations in a Sept. 12 speech demanding compliance with weapon inspections and other policy changes.
Within days, Iraq's Minister of Foreign Affairs announced that Iraq would allow the return of U.N. weapons inspectors "without conditions," according to a Sept. 16 letter addressed to and publicly released by U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan. Iraq's government " based its decision concerning the return of inspectors on its desire to complete the implementation of the relevant Security Council resolutions and to remove any doubts that Iraq still possesses weapons of mass destruction," Minister Naji Sabri wrote.
The Bush administration has cast doubt on the validity of Iraq's decision, saying that Iraq is merely seeking further delay, and continued to push for Congressional authorization to use force, which it received with a resolution approved on October 10 and 11.
United Nations weapons inspectors began seeking access in 1991, faced difficulties throughout the 1990s, and have not been allowed back into the country since 1998. Inspectors have reported that Iraq had a biological weapons program (which Iraq says was destroyed in 1991), chemical weapons, and long-range ballistic missiles. The International Atomic Energy Agency's inspectors have reported that Iraq had a clandestine nuclear program as of late 1998, but that the program had not produced a nuclear weapon at that time. For more on Iraq's weapons, go here.
Iraq's most recent wars have been over territorial boundaries. From 1980 to 1988, Iraq and neighboring Iran were at war over territorial boundaries. In August 1990, Iraq invaded Kuwait but were ousted by a US-led coalition acting under UN resolutions in early 1991. Since then, the United States and the United Nations have taken various measures to limit Hussein's power and, ideally, to bring about an internal change in regime.
First, the international community has imposed economic sanctions and taken military actions (most recently with Operation Desert Fox in December 1998) for Iraq's lack of cooperation with UN weapons inspectors. Even with the limited access provided by Iraq, inspectors have issued reports concluding that Iraq has been developing chemical and biological weapons, and that it has made major steps towards building a nuclear weapon though it had not done so by December 1998. Aside from the inspections, the embargo and sanctions have been controversial, with many critics, especially in the Middle East, blaming such measures for ruining the Iraqi economy and creating a massive public health crisis; US officials put the blame instead on Iraq, noting that there is no embargo on food or medicines. For more on weapons inspections, go here. For more on sanctions, go here.
Problems over inspections loomed large in 1998, which ended with US and UK military strikes against Iraq. Over the course of 1998, Iraq and the UNSCOM had many conflicts, with Iraq denying full access to monitors. In August 1998, UNSCOM inspector Scott Ritter resigned in protest, saying that the US and UK were putting pressure on UNSCOM to abandon planned inspections so as to avoid new confrontations with Iraq. By October 1998, Iraq refused to provide full cooperation until the embargo was lifted. Finally, UN inspectors left the country in December, and then on December 16, 1998, the United States and Britain initiated four days of air strikes against Iraq (Operation Desert Fox). According to the US Department of Defense, the 100 sites attacked were military targets, with only one economic target, a pumping station used in illegal oil exports.
Second, a UN coalition led by the United States and Britain has maintained no-fly zones in southern and northern Iraq. These operations were initially justified as ways to protect Iraqi minorities such as the Kurds from attack by the regime, and have also been used to monitor the regime's activities. The UN also maintains a no-drive zone in southern Iraq to prevent a military build-up that could again invade Kuwait. For more on no-fly zones, go here.
Sources: Thom Shanker and David E. Sanger, U.S. envisions blueprint on Iraq including big invasion next year, New York Times, April 28, 2002. Michael R. Gordon and David E. Sanger, Powell says US is weighing ways to topple Hussein, New York Times, February 13, 2002. The CIA's World Factbook entry on Iraq is on-line here. The State Department's December 2001 country background note on Iraq is available via the State Department's website, located here. President Bush's Sept. 12, 2002 speech to the United Nations is available on-line here.
Chechnya (last updated November 3, 2002) (back to top)
Chechnya, a small, oil-rich, predominantly Muslim republic in Russia's North Caucasus mountain region, has been the site of Russia's greatest internal dissension and military conflicts in the 1990s and the early 21st century. The first Russia-Chechnya military conflict lasted from 1994 to 1996, involved human-rights abuses by both sides, and ended with the Russian forces' embarrassing defeat. A second war began in August 1999, and arguably has continued into 2002.
Still, violent struggles go on and the Russian government sporadically meets with Chechen leaders. In October 2002, Chechen rebels took control of a Moscow theater in October 2002 and threatened to kill hundreds of hostages one at a time until their demands were met. Russian military forces took the theater back by force within three days, killing about 40 rebels and more than 100 out of roughly 750 hostages in the process.
The Russian-Chechen conflict has taken on a new aspect in the wake of the September 11, 2001 attacks in the United States. On September 24, 2001, Putin called on Chechen rebels to stop contacts with international terrorist organizations, trying to link Russia's actions with the United States' actions against al-Qaeda. However, while there is some evidence of individuals or factions tied to terrorist elements, there is none of extensive ties between Chechens and al-Qaeda, a Bush administration official testified in May 2002.
Chechnya's move to independence began without violence in 1991, shortly after the fall of the Soviet Union. Chechnya then elected former Russian general Dzokhar Dudayev as president, and Dudayev declared the country's independence from Russia. Yeltsin had said in 1990 that Russia's various parts should "take as much sovereignty as you can handle," but now as President, he responded to Chechnya's action by declaring a state of emergency and sending in a small number of troops. The operation was ill-conceived, was not supported by the Russian Parliament, and ended embarrassingly when the troops were escorted out of Chechnya.
For the next three years, Chechnya was effectively an independent country. It exported millions of tons of oil and contributed no taxes to the Russian government.
Finally, the Yeltsin administration decided in the fall of 1994 to take action again against Chechnya. The action was described as a necessary act to rein in a separatist regime that harbored criminals who committed hijackings and other acts, but the Yeltsin administration also reportedly believed a war against Chechnya would play well in Russian domestic politics, especially with the then-growing popularity of an ultra-nationalist party. The Russian Parliament again condemned the action, but did not call for the troops' withdrawal as it had in 1991.
More than 40,000 Russian troops entered the Chechen capital of Grozny in mid-December 1994 and then launched a massive artillery campaign on New Year's Eve. About half a million civilians were displaced during the next 20 months of war, and an estimated 50,000 civilians were killed. (The United States did not get directly involved with the conflict, believing the conflict was an internal affair and not recognizing Chechnya as anything other than a part of Russia.)
Dudayev was killed by a Russian attack in April 1996, and was replaced by new leadership that opened new talks with the Russians. In August 1996, Russian and Chechen authorities negotiated a settlement that resulted in the near-complete withdrawal of Russian troops by elections held in January 1997. Chechnya retained its de facto independence, and a peace treaty was signed in May 1997.
A second modern Chechen war began in August 1999, after Chechen commandoes began efforts to seize control of the neighboring republic of Dagestan, which has a sizeable Muslim population and which would provide Chechnya access to the Caspian Sea. Russian forces responded by launching air strikes and re-deploying large numbers of Russian forces, and the conflict escalated after Chechens reportedly bombed two apartment buildings in Moscow in September 1999.
Russian forces claimed to control Chechnya by the spring of 2000, but military operations continued long past that date, with about 80,000 troops stationed there in early 2001. President Vladimir Putin announced In January 2001 that he would begin withdrawing troops and turn anti-separatist operations to special counterterrorist forces, but the withdrawal has proven slower than initially expected.
Russian forces were criticized in both wars for human-rights abuses such as attacking civilians and deliberately attacking civilian infrastructure such as hospitals, and are now criticized for the alleged disappearances and torture of Chechen separatists. The U.N. Commission on Human Rights called in April 2000 for Russia to form a broad-based independent commission to investigate human-rights violations, but Russia had not done so as of early 2002.
Sources: Anatol Lieven, Chechnya: Tombstone of Russian Power (Yale University Press, 1998). Carlotta Gall and Thomas de Waal, Chechnya: Calamity in the Caucasus (New York University Press, 1998). David Remnick, Resurrection: The Struggle for a New Russia (Vintage Books, 1998). The U.S. State Department's March 2002 background note on Russia is on-line here, and a human-rights report is on-line here. U.S. Ambassador Steven Pifer's May 9, 2002 statement to the Congressional Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe is on-line here. Steven Greenhouse, U.S. says Russian move is 'an internal affair,' New York Times, December 12, 1994. Michael Wines, Putin scaling down Chechen war despite new fighting, New York Times, January 23, 2001. Michael Wines and Sabrina Tavernise, Russia recaptures theater after Chechen rebel group begins to execute hostages, New York Times, October 26, 2002.
Haiti (last updated November 3, 2002) (back to top)
Haiti has had a turbulent period of coups and questionable elections throughout the 1990s and into the early 21st century. An international military force restored the democratically-elected president Jean-Bertrand Aristide to power in 1994, but a different electoral crisis has existed since the late 1990s and politically-motivated attacks in June and December 2001 have raised fears about the success of upcoming elections in 2003.
Thousands of Haitians have tried leaving their country for the United States in the past two decades, though the U.S. Coast Guard patrols coastal waters and stops illegal entries. The Coast Guard has dealt with mass exoduses in the early 1990s caused in part by the 1991 coup against Aristide and the resulting political chaos; the Coast Guard stopped 41,342 Haitians from entering the United States in 1991-92, and another 27,473 in 1993-94.
Many Haitians continue to emigrate legally to the United States today, and the Coast Guard continues to stop Haitians from illegally entering; in fiscal year 2001, about 27,000 Haitians became legal immigrants, and 1,391 were interdicted by the Coast Guard. In October 2002, about 200 Haitians landed on the Florida shore in a very public way, drawing new attention to the Haitian situation.
Haiti's modern political problems began after the 29-year dictatorship of the Duvalier family ended in 1986. Provisional governments led the country from 1986 to 1991, and Jean-Bertrand Aristide, a Roman Catholic priest, won two-thirds of the vote in Haiti's first fair elections held in December 1990. Aristide took office in February 1991 but a faction of army and economic elites led a violent coup just eight months later. Aristide left the country and began a three-year period of exile. Thousands of Haitians fled the country, causing a large-scale exodus of boat people; the US Coast Guard rescued a total of 41,342 Haitians in 1991 and 1992.
A military regime ruled Haiti from October 1991 to September 1994, ending only when an international force entered the country to oversee the end of military rule. The force was authorized by the United Nations' Resolution 940 adopted on July 31, 1994, and about 21,000 troops (6,000 of whom were from the United States) touched down on September 19, 1994. By mid-October, the military leaders had left the country and Aristide and other elected officials had returned.
Aristide resumed his term as president, and his party, the Lavalas Political Organization (OPL), did well in nationwide local and parliamentary elections in June 1995. Aristide was barred by Haiti's constitution from running for a second term, and his hand-picked successor, Rene Preval, won 88 percent of the presidential vote in December 1995 and took office in February 1996; this was the first transition between two democratically-elected presidents and it went peacefully.
However, political troubles have again arisen in Haiti and have resulted in a government whose legitimacy is in doubt.
In late 1996, Aristide left his party and created a new one, the Lavalas Family. The resulting gridlock left the Preval government unable to organize local and parliamentary elections in 1998, and when the elections were finally held in May 2000, they were criticized as unfair and flawed. Opposition groups then united in what became known as the Democratic Convergence, which decided to boycott the presidential elections in November 2000.
Facing little opposition, Aristide and the Lavalas Family easily won the elections and Aristide was sworn in once again as Haiti's president on February 7, 2001. The Lavalas Family and the Democratic Convergence met from April to July 2001, but negotiations broke down without a final agreement. Soon after that breakdown, violent attacks have occurred involving attacks on government facilities and subsequent crackdowns on opposition parties. The Haitian government agreed in July 2002 to make reparations to the victims of its December 2001 attacks on opposition parties, and has proposed holding free elections in the first half of 2003.
The international community also has called for change in Haiti. The Organization of American States, a regional organization which the United States is a member of, has threatened to ostracize Haiti and has passed resolutions urging the government to make reforms and to hold free elections.
For more on U.S. immigration policy, go here.
Sources: The U.S. State Department's April 2002 background note on Haiti is on-line here. The U.S. Coast Guard has information about migrant interdictions here. The Organization of American States is on-line here. The U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service is on-line here. Dana Canedy, As cameras roll, Haitians dash from stranded boat to Florida shore, New York Times, October 30, 2002.
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