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Unocal's proposed pipeline (last updated July 2004)
Fahrenheit 9/11 poses the theory that the Bush administration had an ulterior motive in going after the Taliban in Afghanistan instead of going after Saudi Arabia, namely, that the Bush administration wanted to open the door for a pipeline project that would run through Afghanistan.
This theory centers on a proposed pipeline that would take natural gas from Turkmenistan through Afghanistan to Pakistan and on to the Indian Ocean. If such a pipeline were to be developed, then Turkmenistan could realize its potential as an area rich in natural gas, a potential that has gone unrealized due to the logistical problems in getting the natural gas to other markets. Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai has reportedly said that such a project would also generate $100 to $300 million in transit fees and thousands of jobs for Afghanistan.
Given the still-dim prospects for the pipeline more than two years after the United States began military efforts in Afghanistan, it is unlikely that the Bush administration was acting with Unocal's benefit in mind. Also, it is worth noting that the Clinton administration actually was the first to support such a pipeline.
Unocal Involvement in Pipeline Project before 9/11
The energy company Unocal became involved in the proposed project before the Taliban took control of Afghanistan and before al-Qaeda moved from Sudan to Afghanistan. Unocal signed an agreement with Turkmenistan in 1995 and announced plans for a consortium to build the pipeline through Afghanistan in August 1996.
Taliban forces took control of the capital city of Kabul in September 1996 and quickly seized control of most of the country. This changed the political dynamic in a way that caused confusion among both Unocal and the Clinton administration. A Unocal executive reportedly hailed the Taliban's capture of Kabul in September 1996 as a positive step towards stability and for the pipeline project, but Unocal quickly retracted that statement in order to avoid endorsement of the Taliban. Similarly, the State Department initially hailed the possible stability but then backed away from the Taliban.
Despite concerns about the Taliban, Unocal continued to develop the project from 1996 through 1998. Taliban representatives reportedly met with Unocal representatives in February 1997 in Washington D.C. and in November 1997 in Houston, Texas. Unocal later described these meetings as efforts "to educate them about the benefits such a pipeline could bring" to their "poor and war-torn country."
Unocal ended its efforts in Afghanistan in 1998 when the United States began taking more action against al-Qaeda and then the Taliban. Unocal suspended its activities in August 1998 after the United States launched missile attacks against a terrorist training camp related to Osama Bin Laden and formally withdrew from the project in December 1998 after sanctions were imposed against the Taliban.
Unocal Involvement in Pipeline Project after 9/11
Since the fall of the Taliban, the proposal to build a Trans-Afghan natural gas pipeline has been revived somewhat. Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai even signed a protocol on December 9, 2003 between the governments of Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and Pakistan. Nonetheless, the United States' Energy Information Administration reported (on-line here) that little progress had been made as of June 2004 and that the project was unlikely to come to pass:
| "Given the obstacles to development of a natural gas pipeline across Afghanistan, it seems unlikely that such an idea will make any progress in the near future, and no major Western companies have expressed interest in reviving the project. The security situation in Afghanistan remains an obvious problem, while tensions between India and Pakistan make it unlikely that such a pipeline could be extended into India and its large (and growing) gas market … Finally, the pipeline's $2.5-$3.5 billion estimated cost poses a significant obstacle to its construction." |
Similarly, Unocal denied in June 2004 (on-line here) that it had any current interest in a pipeline project through Afghanistan and also denied that it had any arrangement with the Bush administration to reviving such a project:
| "Unocal has absolutely no intention of participating in an Afghanistan pipeline project nor are we in discussions with any parties about doing so. We had no 'understanding' with the Bush Administration that once U.S. military forces removed the Taliban from power we would proceed with such a project. Further, Hamid Karzai, the president of Afghanistan, was never a consultant or adviser to Unocal, as Moore erroneously asserts." |
Chronology
The following table tracks Unocal's involvement in the pipeline project:
| October 1995 | Unocal and Turkmenistan signed an agreement to give Unocal the right to buy natural gas, transport it to Pakistan, and market it. Unocal and Turkmenistan also signed an agreement in 1995 to develop an oil pipeline through Afghanistan. Source: Unocal press release.
| | August 13, 1996 | Unocal and Delta Oil Company announced they had signed a memorandum of understanding with Gazprom and Turkmenrusgaz as additions to a consortium to build a pipeline that would cost an estimated $2 billion. Unocal and Delta were to hold 85 percent of the project. Source: Unocal press release.
| | September 26, 1996 | Taliban forces took the capital city of Kabul. The United States initially expressed optimism about the possibility of new stability in the country, with a State Department spokesman reportedly expressing hope that "the new authorities in Kabul will move quickly to restore order and security and to form a representative interim government that can begin the process of reconciliation nationwide." The State Department backed away from this position within days, calling the situation "quite murky." Similarly, a Unocal executive reportedly told wire services that the pipeline project would be easier to build with the Taliban's control of Kabul; Unocal quickly retracted this statement. Sources: Elaine Sciolino, State Dept. becomes cooler to the new rulers in Kabul, New York Times, October 23, 1996. Ahmed Rashid, Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil & Fundamentalism in Central Asia (Yale University Press, 2001).
| | February 1997 | Taliban representatives visited Washington D.C., where they met with State Department officials and Unocal. Source: Ahmed Rashid, Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil & Fundamentalism in Central Asia (Yale University Press, 2001).
| | October 1997 | The Central Asia Gas (CentGas) pipeline consortium was formed, with Unocal serving as its development manager. Source: here.
| | November 1997 | Taliban representatives met with Unocal in Houston. According to a report by Caroline Lees of the Telegraph, the Taliban representatives visited the Houston zoo, NASA space center, a Super Target store, and the home of a Unocal vice-president. Source: Caroline Lees, "Oil barons court Taliban in Texas," Sunday Telegraph, December 14, 1997
| | August 1998 | The United States launched a cruise missile attack against a training camp affiliated with Osama Bin Laden. Immediately afterwards, Unocal announced that it had suspended all activities involving the proposed pipeline project, citing "sharply deteriorating political conditions in the region." "We have consistently informed the other participants that unless and until the United Nations and the United States government recognize a legitimate government in Afghanistan, Unocal would not invest capital in the project. Contrary to some published reports, Unocal has not - and will not - become a party to a commercial agreement with any individual Afghan faction." Source: Unocal press release.
| | December 4, 1998 | Unocal announced that it had withdrawn from the CentGas consortium for "business reasons" and that it "no longer has any role in supporting the development or funding of this project." Source: here.
| | February 16, 1999 | Unocal reiterated that it had no role with CentGas. Source: here.
| | May 20, 2002 | Unocal's chairman reiterated that it had no plans to become involved in any projects with Afghanistan. Source: Unocal statement.
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Sources: Unocal press releases and statements, on-line here. Ahmed Rashid, Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil & Fundamentalism in Central Asia (Yale University Press, 2001). Elaine Sciolino, State Dept. becomes cooler to the new rulers in Kabul, New York Times, October 23, 1996. Caroline Lees, "Oil barons court Taliban in Texas," Sunday Telegraph, December 14, 1997. The U.S. Energy Information Administration's report on Afghanistan is on-line here.
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